INTRODUCTION

The present threat of suspected entrance of depression is not an event suddenly came about. In the late seventies, some writers had warned the world that national income distribution in both the developed and the developing economies was going on becoming more unequal with their advancement on the path of economic development and growth. They had opined that the increasing inequality, if not controlled, would one day create a strong barrier in the way of economic development and growth. The warning was over looked. Therefore, on account of persisting inequality, greater portion of national income went on concentrating in the hands of a small numbered rich group and the remaining smaller portion was to feed the large numbered general mass.

INCOM DISTRIBUTION INEQUALITY

 The inequality of income distribution became more rigorous in developing economies because the corruption pacing with development process also contributed a lot towards making the income distribution more unequal therein. I remember (Late) Mr. Rajiv Gandhi when as the Prime Minister of India he had accepted that only 20 paisa (one fifth of a rupee) was being actually utilized in government investment out of one released rupee.  

With the passing of time, some from the rich group became economically and politically so sound that they either entered in the policy making group or became capable of influencing the policy makers. Therefore, the economic policies went on being so formulated that the part of national income going into the hands of these rich elites, and their kith and kin went on increasing. Thus, a group of rich elites, being very small in number, emerged in each capitalist developing or developed economy and grabbed a big portion of the fruits of development and growth. The rest of the rich group stayed on back foot and ultimately joined the following middle income group. Moreover, the poverty alleviation move enabled many of the low income group to step up and join the middle income group. Thus the mass of middle income group went on rapidly increasing in number and thereby the middle income group became a dominant consumer group. It became so wide and so dominant that today the word ‘market’ means the market of consumption goods pertaining to the consumption of this middle income group, unless it is otherwise specified.

THE DEVELOPED ECONOMIES

In developed economies, the rich elites (the rich minority) made use of huge funds, accumulated in their hands, in two ways.

(i) They heavily invested in the production of commodities pertaining to the consumption of the vast middle income group. But, the disposable income of this group increased with a lower rate than the growth rate of the production of their consumption items because of the rising inequality of income distribution and a high degree competition among producers to squeeze the purchasing power of this market dominating group. That is why the developed economies came across slackness especially in the market of the consumer goods pertaining to the consumption of middle income group. The developed economies had got the idea of future slackness or depressive trend well in the later eighties when they started insisting the developing economies for coming under the globalization move so that the extra production of developed economies may find market in developing economies. However, this was pointed out by some economists (like in India when there was introduced the new economic policy in July 91 to provide a good thrust to the process of globalization). But the voice of those thinkers was lost in the uproar of the initially increasing foreign exchange receipts. In addition to this, the behest of IMF and World Bank made the governments of developing member countries to neglect this type of criticisms. With the help of globalization the developed economies has been succeeding in keeping the condition of over production averted for last 20 years. But, the recessive tendency has so far become so strengthened that the developing economies, too, instead of saving the developed economies, have but themselves become victim of depression.

(ii) They utilized the remaining funds, though still bulky, in speculation activities both commodity and non-commodity speculation. The funds (liquidity) utilized in non-commodity speculation (like shares, debentures etc.) was mistakenly regarded as investment and, therefore, taken into account as active saving. But, actually this liquidity or, in other words, this portion of the total saving did nothing towards the effective demand in the market. Thence, it is almost the same as inactive saving. Thus, the liquidity utilized in speculation market (especially in share market) was snatched from the hands of middle income group and turned into inactive saving. This amount along with the black money entered not into demand formation whereby total demand in market lagged behind the total supply and, thereby, a condition of over production came about there.

THE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

As regards to the developing economies, the story of there’s depressive trend ran almost in the similar way but with a slight difference. Inequalities in income distribution prevailed and went on increasing in developing economies also similarly as in developed economies. The difference was that corruption in developing economies was more persistent than in developed economies. The portion of liquidity accumulated on account of corruption was turned into black money. Only a small portion of this black money could be utilized some how to add to demand in market. Its remaining big portion went either to foreign banks as hidden deposits or stealthily invested in foreign companies or, otherwise, remained unused and lying in hidden money chests of rich elites. This however did not contributed to demand in market but this did not even contributed to the productive investment. The persistent lack of capital in developing economies became more rigorous on account of the black money. Therefore, the developing economies were but experiencing inflationary pressure up to the late eighties on account of heavy autonomous (unproductive) investment in welfare and employment schemes (apart from that in infrastructure) by their governments being dependent on foreign aid, World Bank financing, external debts and deficit financing. As the eighties end and the nineties begin the inflationary trend started being converted into depressive trend in the developing economies also on account of the following events.

(i) Various schemes, moves and drives to convert black money into white were launched whereby a considerable part of black money came out, became converted into white money and it added to productive investment. This increased supply in the market. Though employment also was thereby increased to add to the demand but lesser was added to demand than to supply due to highly unequal income distribution in developing economies.

(ii) Under the process of globalization MNCs were allowed to enter in the developing economies. The MNCs made heavy productive investments and thus considerably added to the total supply in the markets but the thereby increased employment could not equally add to the total demand because a considerable part of their production value (revenue) went to their respective mother countries in the form of profits. Moreover these MNCs kept considerable part of their revenue in the form of undistributed profit deposited generally in the foreign banks.

(iii) The expansion of share markets took impetus in developing economies in the middle of nineties on account of some small scams and computerization of stock exchanges. However, a big scam always creates uncertainty in stock exchange activities and therefore harms the share market. But, contrarily, small scams always help increase the stock exchange activities because small scams create more ups and downs in share prices. The share market business or, in other words, the stock exchange activities are actually the non-commodity speculation activities and, therefore, are directly proportional to the rate of change in share prices with respect to both the time and the level of share prices. The expansion of share market attracted huge amounts of funds (liquidity) which could have contributed to investment, production, employment, consumption etc. in the form of active saving.

(iv) The globalization made easy access to the markets of developing economies for depression stricken developed economies. Therefore, the gluts of consumer goods started being dumped into the markets of developing economies. The goods produced in developed economies are of better quality and cheaper (on account of lower production cost) than the goods produced in developing economies. In addition to this, the consumption of the mass of developing economies is highly conspicuous. These two factors attracted the consumers of developing economies towards those dumped goods so much that their home produced consumption goods lost the demand up to a considerable level. However, the flood of Chinese goods in world market in recent years has made a big dent on the dumping activities of the developed economies but it makes no difference to the importing economy whether dumping is done by China or another country. However, the Chinese dumping increased the intensity of depression in developed economies by affecting adversely the demand of their export.

Each of the events discussed above contributed towards increasing the supply but decreasing the demand of consumption goods in the developing economies. The combined effect of these events made a considerable change whereby up to the year 2008 the developing economies also came into the grip of depressive trend in their markets.

PRESENT SITUATION

Whatever the geography, the travelling path, the process and the story of the depression 2008 may be, we should not hesitate to accept now that it has so far become a problem not only of the developed economies but of the whole world. Therefore, all economies of the world should collectively fight against it taking it as the ‘World Mission Depression 2008’.

Leaving all things aside we should recall Lord Keynes and conceive that depression comes about only when saving exceed investment or, in other words, when a portion of total saving remains un-invested and lying in the form of inactive saving. The present depression 2008 also is not an exception. However, all the governments are claiming that they are keeping deficit in their budgets far more than the estimated inactive saving. But, they are mistaking because they are not including the blocked black money, exported black money and the money utilized in speculating activities in their estimation pertaining to the inactive saving. All the three types of money are the liquidities not utilized as investment. Therefore, the world governments, to fight against the depression 2008, should find ways and means to convert these moneys into investment, desirably into autonomous investment in the beginning. However, a considerable portion of black money is too stubborn to be converted. Similar is in case of the money engaged in speculation. Therefore, the governments should take into account the unconverted part of the black money and the money engaged in speculation, as inactive saving while deciding the extent of their budget deficits. As soon as the governments start keeping their budget deficit more than the total inactive saving estimated as suggested above, the process of reflation will start and bring the world economy out of depression.

      _________________________________________________

Crisis in World Economy and the proposed New Model for sustainable development.

The ongoing turmoil in world economy raised the doubt that present model of capitalism cannot be sustained for environmental and social reasons. Respected thinkers and scientists have pointed to this reality. Now we should look ahead to a new system that is sustainable and humane. Otherwise whatever wealth is created would be wiped out by environmental disasters and social upheavals. Whole system is complicated by lack of transparency. It is not clear where all the money gets invested. Hedge funds are cloaked in secrecy- even bailout money has disappeared with no effect to the economy. Even now nobody knows which are the real bad toxic assets, so stock market is also not recovering.

In this treatise some key issues in this crisis are discussed and a new  model is proposed that will engineer a balanced global society  globally conscious, active and sustainable.   

Regarding overpaid CEOs

Let us ponder over some news those captured the attention across the globe. Washington Mutual Chief Executive Alan Fishman could walk away with more than 18 million dollar in salary, bonuses and severance after less than three weeks on the job as golden parachute from flight WaMu in danger, according to the terms of his employment agreement. Lehman Brothers was handing out 23 million dollar to three executives just days before it collapsed. It paid 2.5 BILLION dollar bonus fund after failing. CEO of American Express saw his pay go up much more than double although shares price nosedived. Hewlett Packard CEO destroyed half the wealth of her investors and yet still earned almost 100 million dollars in total payments. Exactly same is the case with Informix Software CEO. The list goes on and on. It means what?  This isn’t a diatribe against CEO pay. Point is failure has become a recipe for financial success of CEOs especially in America by virtue of their intelligent manipulation and abuse of power.  Martin Whitman, economist and the great advocate of capitalism opined that apart from corruption another reason as to why a free market situation is probably doomed to failure is very exorbitant levels of executive compensation.

 Regarding free-market economy

I do not think free market is really free. Those who say they favor a free market are speaking in a relative term.  In an absolutely free-market economy, all capital, goods, services, and money flow are unregulated by the government. There is simply no free market yet, given the degree of state intervention in even the most capitalist of countries. For example US government took an 80% stake in AIG in return for an 85 billion dollar investment to save the company. Recent news of Citi bank is being given a bail out package of 326 billion dollars and Jaguar’s requirement of 1 billion pound for sustaining economic meltdown are significant. Under pure capitalist theory, none of these actions should’ve been taken; the government should have stood by idly while the economy tanked. So how can a free market be free if it’s regulated?  The fall out of free market economy such as black Market, underground economy, Drug trade essentially justifies government’s intervention to remedy the situation and establishes the argument against free market as an impractical ideal that engenders vested wealthy interests. Experiments in absolute adherence to free market principles evince signal failures in Military, Road, Health Care, Civic Amenities, Education, R & D etc. Free- market economy is a fantasy – outside of the bounds of reality in a complex system with opposing interests and different distributions of wealth. Time and again world is realizing this fact is a harder way. Hence I align with those critics who are in favour of a planned economy  as advocated by socialism and who associate markets with greed  as the basis of capitalism. I believe it is inherently immoral. More over one practical objection is that free market economy does not take into account the externalities i.e. effects of transactions that affect third parties, such as the negative effects of Global Warming that brought world to Apocalypse in foreseeable future. I guess that in well-run industrial economies like Japan, Singapore and China, there is marriage between government and the private sector, each benefiting from the other. Any temporary prosperity on an extremely austere free market concept can crumble like a pack of cards, like it happened in USA.

Regarding Nationalisation and regulation.

 What does the US federal government taking control of financially crumbling mortgage holders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a bail out package of staggering 800 billion?  Why on the earth Fed and other regulators are coming into the picture particularly for some of those that got overextended with the subprime and other kind of mortgage debt? Nationalization occurs when full or partial control is taken of private financial institutions, usually to avert a crisis. Scandinavian nations successfully averted an economic meltdown through nationalization in the early 1990s, and in recent times. US government is taking similar actions. It looked at the global fallouts and how politically they will be viewed by the world powers. So they bailed out finance industries, but not agreeing so easily to the auto industry. these issues are interlinked with power, military, oil.

 Regarding mortgage financing

It was the proponents of Capitalism who supported advantage of loan facilities and low interest rates for houses to be owned by people at low income group. There was enormous marketing effort to dupe people into it.  Logic was simple. If one buys house, he will also buy complimentary household goods like furniture, Fans, AC, Cars etc. creating a demand pull in the economy. Banks also extended the moratorium on interest and principle up to 5 years to convince the borrowers. When crisis occurs, should we brand common people as “lazy bummers”? Similarly it is unfair to blame the common investors for lost speculative fortune when Stock Market is institutionalized by system as a socially and ethically valid means of income.

Regarding targeting CEOs

In our capitalist system, you’re free to earn what you can, and what the market will bear- this logic does not hold water since big companies are increasingly depending on public money for a bail out. Hence I support newest trend of shareholders in raising questions and putting pressure on boards and compensation committees to make sure compensation is fair but not excessive. The interesting News was that US Law Makers asked blunt questions to CEOs like Wagoner, Nardelli, Mulally of GM, Chrysler and Ford who came to the Capital Hill with a begging bowl for 25 Billion of Tax Payers money, when each one of them preferred to fly in their individual Private Jets, when as many as 24 non stop flights fly daily from Detroit to Washington. Lifestyle and salary should definitely be a valid question when companies are using public money. That is why companies are facing “say on pay” resolutions from shareholders. The board of directors should have taken this role, but instead they normally abdicate it. Most CEOs considers keeping board members happy as their primary duties. For example taking the board members on an all-expenses paid trip to a five-star international resort, allowing his compensation to spiral out of control, which is nothing but intelligent corruption and abuse of power.

Myth regarding the CEOs’ ‘sheer value-add’ in the corporate world.

For a company to become successful entails billions of variables, which are oftentimes beyond the ambit of human ability of one individual. Even with our full regard on Narayanmurthy’s ability, we must accept Infosis’s success was primarily on account of flattening effect of world by Internet revolution in 92.  Jerry Yang, co founder of Yahoo, considered to be a great CEO, had to step down amid mounting pressure from investors after he botched takeover talks with Microsoft Corp. and failed to broker an online advertising agreement with Google Inc. Many CEOs were rated highly for certain techno bubble, which turned out to be utterly divorced from any business purpose whatsoever. Of course there is positive effect too- it attracts lot of investment and accelerates the pace of innovation. The trophy cases of HP CEO with so many industry awards and accolades were crucified for her destructive reign of terror with “Silicon Valley greed.” Hence it is fundamentally wrong to empower one individual so much for the success and failure of an organization. In Japanese and Chinese model, system is ascribed more powerful than an individual.  Once CEOs become all-powerful, their executive staff is reluctant to challenge them. Instead, the natural tendency is for these dominant leaders to become cocooned from reality. They are told only what they want to hear and hear only what they want to be told. Sequestered from the rest of the company, they lose the pulse of the business eventually.

Regarding Capitalism vs. Socialism

By virtue of the extremely clever indoctrination, a spin-off of media advertising especially of US kind, our thought process is getting clouded driving us towards more personal interest, freedom and power than social responsibility. Do we really need large waves of money sloshing daily around the planet for benefit of only a few, waves often generated by speculation capable of dislocating economies? Do we need larger and larger corporations which concentrate economic power into fewer and fewer hands? When seen in this light, capitalism has a shadow side. Economy in its root sense means acquiring the basic material things we need to lead a human life: food, shelter, energy, etc. But this is something quite different than a quest for a so-called higher standard of living. This really is the unending quest for a higher level of consumption. Our material needs are finite. After a certain point we are simply embellishing them. Then we begin to distort them making them the carriers of our own disordered desires.  Recent news of bra and panty for men in Japan is the right example for such disorder. We need shelter but we don’t need 50,000 square feet trophy homes when billions of people can’t even afford a shanty. Now we are living in a time when we don’t even feel shame. We have become so much closeted within ourselves that even with the back up of enormous fortune, we feel unsafe with the slightest possibility of economic meltdown.  Capitalism propels us to become shameless consumers and run our lives according to the design of the contemporary social machine, which foreshadows world destruction, whereas our true nature favours a life closer to nature. If American Capitalism is a kind of religion with its own dogma, then its God is Money and its driving force is Greed.  The fall out of this ruthless system is obscenities of unemployment, homelessness and economic insecurity and hence is not sustainable in its present form. The whole system is designed to make fewer and fewer people richer and richer at the cost of resources of the multitude. It definitely operates below the level of consciousness and no longer works for us.  I understand one very simple thing – goods and services generated in an economy must be shared equitably in a population. Otherwise those who will be deprived will take resort to unethical or socially unacceptable means- theft, dacoity, terrorism, drug, killing, cheating, narrow politics and what not.   Recent examples of everyday terrorism, Piracy, Mao attacks, dark killing are the pointers to this fact.   

Even in USA people are facing dark side of capitalism when blue collar Americans have been losing jobs because of outsourcing and off shoring in the mask of progress for real intention of more profit.  What is the social damage? Skills for manufacturing a certain product developed over the years are getting lost in the society.  Capitalist countries use capitalist ideals as a matter of convenience.  When Government owns hospitals, libraries, transportation systems, utilities, army, Navy, Air Force, forests and national perks- yet, who would call these institutions examples of socialism?  Socialism means a government in which the people collectively own and democratically operate the industries and social services through an economic democracy by ending the waste, duplication and inefficiency of capitalist industries. Under capitalism the industries operate for one purpose – profit maximization. As per Capitalism profit is also a cost, cost of staying in the business. Under Socialism goods are produced for use and to satisfy the needs of all the people. Under this system everyone could live comfortably with no giant gaps between rich and poor. Is it not really humane? Just because a system is not strictly as per lower merits of human nature say greed, it should not be rejected. Socialism talks about higher sense of our human values and existence.  After Industrial resolution act 1956 in India, socialistic pattern of economy in India has produced wonderful developments in sectors till seventies. Hence we can infer that Socialistic system can produce wonderful results under certain conditions and social environment.  However I do agree classical form of Socialism may not take into account of the Individual brilliance and creative pursuit, which is probably its one of its weaknesses.

The New Model

Having said this, we should find out whether there can be a balance between the two systems and what kind of mechanism society should develop so that one can approximate the ideals of good life in his individual life and in the life of community of which he is a member. I feel it is possible to have our modern global economy while being socially, culturally & environmentally responsible at the same time. Society has go through a difficult paradigm shift in personal values, which will instill a degree of awareness in our mind as opposed to the blind, materialistic way we are living.

I have thought of one model that will engineer a balanced global society that is globally conscious, active and sustainable. Way out is to lead humanity by the collective wisdom of most talented people in a society or country- a kind of meritocracy.  Mechanism to harness collective wisdom will be -say for any policy and contentious issue, opinions of most eminent people of the country will be  collected by a network of computers and looking into the wisdom of eminent people who are most knowledgeable on the subject under consideration, decision can be made in real time. Their services can be hired at a cost; they can be selected based on the track record etc. Decisions can be taken in National forum if discussion and debate are warranted. Experiments, research and its implications can be interpreted by eminent people only and that is why collective wisdom as instrumentality for decision support system may be a model worth trying for. One may argue country does not need only dry knowledge culled from books. There must be leaders to make certain things happen. Yes leaders are required. But a leader can be chosen by collective wisdom, which should be supremely empowered. A leader will resort to collective wisdom for at least for major decision. The collective wisdom is likely to veer country to right direction. Humanity has to go though different experiments and whatever evolved as better model will be accepted and perfected in course of time. We should never be blind to state that capitalism or the socialism is the right system with dogmatic finality.

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This writing is the product of   www.goldencomputerclub.com/

This site is in honor of world peace and Ronald Reagan, Martin Luther King, Princess Diana and John Kennedy,Mama Bhutto. To share computer knowledge For the perfection of the world. We should all be at peace with all things with the Christmas spirit. [Visit The sister and brother site of this  www.bishopsgoldenhealingchurch.com/ Born by citizenshaveagoldenheartfoundation.com which is presently off line.]    tomdevisscher@yahoo.com   My personal e-mail                                                                                                                    Tom D. DeVisscher  Ph# 508-342-5309 AND                   774-719-3007                                             Start your own website or add to your existing knowledge.Super special deals.Hopefully many of you will get great deals from the banners and coming links to help you with great computer success. Currently we are feeding some of Attleboro’s poor on Sundays when we can afford to.Comming soon, lots more great computer stuff.Heartily Yours. Please give us an e-mail feeding this site with your blessed imput on the e-mail system found at the bottom of this page.Make this your computer club.Help improve it. Heartily yours.Your brother of the AMERICAN FLAG and the HOLY FAMILY of JERUSALEM.

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Sometime in 1972 in a Police Headquarters of one of Laguna’s chartered cities, two police patrolmen were casually exchanging views as to who would be the next President of the Philippines after the term of Mr. Marcos. Both were anxious to know who could really beat Marcos should he ever allow the government to hold presidential election. The policeman who seemed to be a pro-Marcos believer insisted that Marcos shall remain forever, considering his enormous political power and martial law rules. In the middle of the discussion, an old man in the late 70′s who was keeping an ear on the discussion politely cut in and delivered his dialogue:  “It is imminent that President Marcos shall step down from the power comes few years ahead. As a matter of fact, there would still be four more Philippine President after him.  To include Mr. Marcos’ surname initial, four more presidential initials would follow which shall compose the particular word “MARIA”.  The fifth initial which stands for “A” is a lady who would be the last president of the Republic.  During the lady president’s incumbency, the Philippines shall be the starting place of the world catastrophe which may eventually turn to the end of the world. But several more years prior to its catastrophic occurrence,  the Philippines shall first soar into a great nation and shall be considered as one of the richest countries in the world. The fact is, there would still be three more presidents under the lady president’s  administration”.

In my younger mind of 21 (now I’m over 50′s),  I was there wondering whether this old man was telling the truth or not considering that it was still Mr. Marcos’ incumbency and nobody ever knew whether there would really be another election at that time  There were also some lingering questions that I set aside at that time:

What does the abbreviation “M.A.R.I.A.” stand for;? How is it possible for the Philippines to become one of the richest countries in the world considering the present economic crisis; Why should there be three more presidents under Ms. A’s presidency? And why of all countries should the small Philippines be the source of the world catastrophe which may eventually turn to the end of the world?

1.  What does the abbreviation “M.A.R.I.A.” stand for;?

Today in the year 2009, I now am able to analyze what are all those things mean. The word “MARIA” stands for “Marcos”, “Aquino”, “Ramos”, “Estrada”, “Arroyo”. Why? Estrada does not have initial of  “I”.  Well, the answer is simple, in the countryside the word that spells “MAREA” is spoken and sounded as “MARIA”, that is self-explanatory.

2. How is it possible for the Philippines to become one of the richest countries in the world considering the present economic crisis;

The Philippines, as a small third country which is indulged in serious economic and political crisis, may still have a chance to prove that it can possibly be one of the richest countries in the world considering its great volumes of precious reserves and mineral deposits particularly, the so-called “Deuterium: The White Gold of the Philippines”.

According to Major Tom/June 17, 2008, (Deuterium: The White Gold of the Philippines, The Economy Science and Technology),  “the Philippines is identified to hold the greatest amount of deuterium deposit, somewhere in the area known as Mindanao Trench, the part of the Pacific Ocean just off the shores of Surigao. Deuterium is most prevalent in an area more widely known in the whole world as The Philipppine Deep. In the Freeman news article (dated August 2004), Dr. Anthony B. Halog, the Filipino scientist working at the Sustainable Technology Office of the Institute for Chemical Process and Environmental Technology, and the National Research Council of Canada described the Philippine deuterium wealth in this manner:

“A big deposit of 868 miles long, 52 miles at widest point, and 3 miles at deepest point, replenished by nature 24 hours a day after deuterium travels more than 12,000 kilometers from Central America to the Philippines through the span of the Pacific Ocean when Planet Earth turns on its axis from West to East in unending perpetual motion.”

And it’s potential in this breathe: “At 12 million barrels per day capacity priced at US$7.00 per barrel, this is US$84 million per day or US$30.66 billion per year, enough to wipe out all existing foreign debts of the Government in one year, revenue-wise in foreign exchange.”

3.  Why should there be three more presidents under Ms. A’s presidency?

Under the present territorial setting, federalism issue and the conversion into state (just like in America) of the three major island groups of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, is presently being raised for debate in the Philippine Congress/Senate? (Please correct me if I’m wrong.)  What is Federalism  by the way?

It is a system of government in which a written constitution divides the powers of government on a territorial basis. The division is made between a central, or national, government and several regional or local governments. Each level of government has its own area of powers. Neither level, acting alone, can change the basic division of powers the constitution makes between them. Each level operates through its own agencies and acts directly on the people through its own officials and laws.  (Reference: http://firstclass.rfsd.k12.co.us/~mschneiter/Fad/legislative_1_federalism.htm)

Now we see picture.  There can be three more presidents under one over-all president should there be a conversion of these three major island groups of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao into the so-called state. As in the U.S., a state is headed by the Governor and as in the case of the Visayas island  in the Philippines, it would be headed by the Visayas President, and so with Luzon and Mindanao  for that matter.

4.  And why of all countries should the small Philippines be the source of the world catastrophe?

Ever realized that the late movie actor Fernando Poe, Jr.  did not make it to the Presidency despite his popularity? It may be a will of doom to let President Arroyo stay in power and experience the end of the world. Since the Philippines is set to become one of the richest countries in the world for its sky-rocketing deuterium production, there is an imminent danger of resentment among other countries, focusing enviously on the Philippine healthy economy while the others experience economic global crisis. Such perspective may eventually generate conflict among four big nations. With the use of modern and sophisticated military hardware, regardless of leveling themselves into an offensive-and-defensive position, but with one particular aspect – and that is  to defend and destroy,  this  may become catastrophic situation and may eventually trigger to the end of the world. Just an opinion.

With Italy’s socking win to become the world’s best soccer team, it seems prudent to discuss something that is not usually connected with soccer: the economy.

It may seem strange, but many say it is true, that the outcome of this super sports event dictates the economic future of the participating teams and in turn, the world. It has been researched, and evidence has been found, to hypothesize the winners of the World Cup can expect to have a small boost in their finances as a result of the win. In “Soccer and the Economy: March 2006 Edition”, Ruben van Leeuwen and Charles Kalshoven discussed this phenomenon. In their document van Leeuween and Kalshoven look to a study conducted to the Algemene Bank Nederland (ABN) and the Amsterdamsche-Rotterdamsche Bank (AMRO) showing that the winning countries tend to see a 0.7% increase in their market. Most of this increase is contributed to the positive energy generated in a country from a win. A win at the World Cup causes a whole country to feel pride and happiness, and happy people just love to buy. Plus, parties to celebrate the win will generate revenue and work, especially in bars and supermarkets. Another means of economic growth come from the sale of souvenirs commemorating the big win. Finally, a country that wins the World Cup is recognized by the whole world because of its achievement. This recognition may open up new trade opportunities and make businesses more inclined to invest in the country (Kalshoven and Van Leeuwen).

In 2002, .3 billion people watched the World Cup Final in Japan, and this number is predicted to be much higher in Berlin (Unknown). This amount of publicity certainly helps stimulate the economy in general, but past wins reflect that the theory that economic growth and World Cup champions go hand in hand. According to van Leeuween and Kalshoven, there have only been two exceptions to this theory since 1970: in 1974 and 1978. In these two years, the German (’74) and Argentine (’78) economy declined, however the economy of the losing finalist both years, the Netherlands, had a far greater loss. However, in 1988 the Netherlands finally had its victory and its economic growth. IN this year the Amsterdam stock market gained 29% more than it did the previous year. Van Leeuween and Kalshoven have seen a gain of about 10% for the World Cup champions and a loss of about 25% on average for the losing team. This growth is not uncommon, says van Leeuween and Kalshhoven as they have seen on averaged a 10% gain for the World Cup champions and 25% loss for the losing team (Kalshoven and Van Leeuwen).

Before the beginning of the Cup, Brazil and England were the favorites, but with these two already out it is hard to tell who will be gaining that economic boost. Germany, as the host country, has put more than $350 million into transportation improvements for the Cup and in total $1.7 billion to improve stadiums (Higginson). Since they have put so much in, it may be safe to say Germany deserves this win. Also, Germany has fallen on economic hard times, making a win highly beneficial to not only the economic state of the country but the psychological state as well. However, on Sunday Germany’s dreams were dashed by a stellar overtime performance by the Italian team. However, Germany is not totally discouraged as it expects at least a 1.6% increase in its GNP due only to the revenue generated from being a host country. Plus, the new jobs created by this opportunity have led to an 11% increase in Germany’s unemployment rate (Drew).

It shall remain to be seen whether or not Italy has the economic golden egg hidden under the title of World Cup Champion, but at least it is sure they have the respect of the world (a maybe a bruised sternum). The next World Cup is not set to be played until summer 2010, when it will be hosted by South Africa.

Works Cited

Drew, Catherine. “VOA News-German Businesses Await Economic Effects of World
Cup.” News VOA. 8 June 2006. 28 June 2006 http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-06-08-voa37.cfm.

Higginson, Matthew. “Financial Goals: the Wealth Behind the World Cup.” TMCNet. 12
June 2006. Technology Marketing Corporation. 28 June 2006 http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/06/12/1677445.htm.

Kalshoven, Charles, and Ruben Van Leeuwen. Netherlands. ABN AMRO. Soccernomics
2006: Soccer and the Economy. 22 Mar. 2006. 28 June 2006 http://www.abnamro.com/pressroom/releases/media/pdf/abnamro_soccernomics_2006_en.pdf.

Unknown.”World Cup 2006-Private Sector Development- the World Bank Group.”
Private Sector Development Home. Summer 2006. The World Bank Group. 28 June 2006 http://rru.worldbank.org/features/worldcup2006.aspx.

The global economy is “…in the deepest post-World War Two recession by far” (Reuters). In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the global economy is expected to get a lot worse before it shows signs of improvement. This news is no news at all to those that are struggling to pay debts, find work, and gain necessary loans.

As banks drop rates and markets fluctuate, far too many people are left in the lurch. Hundreds have turned to credit cards for financial support. More still have turned to traditional lenders only to be turned back out on the street once more. Future economic projects remain optimistic, though these projects are consistently adjusted in light of the ongoing global economic state.

It is entirely possible that an end to this worldwide recession might not be anywhere in sight. This is not good news to anyone left scrambling for funds. Previously, a poor economic state meant that the average person was impacted the most. This time around, the state of the current global economy has touched upon all people, businesses, and even banks. Mark Carney (Bank of Canada Governor) recently stated that “the global recession has intensified and become more synchronous since the bank’s January monetary policy report update, with weaker than expected activity in all major economies” (Globe and Mail).

Traditional lenders are no longer approving numerous loans based upon the sheer fact that they are no longer confident that these loans will be paid back. This means that even those people will outstanding credit could be turned away for a loan. In response to this bank crisis, more and more people are beginning to look towards alternative loans. Since alternative lenders don’t rely upon past credit histories, these lenders can afford to take a chance on borrowers from all walks of life.

Alternative lending companies base their loan applications upon criteria such as a present full time job and some form of collateral. Regardless of bad credit marks, these companies are still willing to give out loans. This is comforting news to those consumers that are desperately seeking a loan. While there is no end to the present state of the global economy in sight, consumers in need of loans are not without hope. Traditional lenders aren’t willing to gamble on consumers at the moment, but alternative lenders are providing a bit of hope within this bleak economy by approving bad credit loans.